Up or Down?

Twiddling my thumbs here this afternoon I decided to try to predict the results of ours and our closest rivals matches to the end of the season. I don't normally do this till the Easter period when all sorts of permutations can be made, and realistically you know what sort of team you can field. Who knows Carroll might break a leg giving Green a chance again and Ashton will start playing tomorrow.(Flying pigs etc).
Anyway, we have played 26 games and amassed a hefty 20 points. This is, of course, half the magic figure of 40 points which seems to be the accepted safety net. So we need 20 points from twelve games........ three of which are against Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal, so shall we say 20 points from 9 games? See where I am going with this?
Added to the fact that I fully expect Charlton to turn us over, probably with Darren Bent getting a hat-trick after Reo Coker gets sent off in the first half with Pardew doing an over elaborate celebration in front of Biscuit man.
Mind you...I never have been very good at predictions.